The Year 2008 and 2009 belonged to China, Australia and India, in that order and the year 2010 may also see a decent growth rate for India.
The year 2011 could well be the best year for India for various reasons. First the second largest populated country of the world has seen a decent annual monsoon rainfall, which means better output of food for the millions of growing middle class Indians. Also that means some extra agricultural produce for exports at highly attractive rates.
The country has found crude oil and gas in the recent past, which are adding up the local contribution in a big way in the last two years.
Also the country is seeing a major increase in domestic demand for all products and services due to the increasing individual incomes. Add to this the ability of the country to grab every opportunity to grab high value information technology jobs from US and Europe , which are scouting for ways to cut costs and stay afloat.
Higher domestic growth rate with low dependence on exports is helping the country to attract more foreign capital at low interest rates. Also it has a good restriction on capital account convertibility, which is helping it to save itself from the mercy of the dangerous foreign hedge funds.
The Asian Terror centric country, Pakistan, has already been battered in the last few years due to faulty governance. The country is now getting battered by the mother nature, and massive floods have drowned over 10% of the country and forced innocent people out of their livelihood.
Over two million people have been rendered homeless and are surviving for the last few weeks without proper food / shelter / sanitation / medical support. The World Health Organization is expecting a massive pandemic outbreak in the flood affected zones in the coming weeks.
World economy is like a three interlocking puzzles America,Europe and China. The three countries are facing different challenges and are intertwined in the global networking. The fragility in the global economic system needs open mind to come to know about risks. There has been a positive outcome for the world economy in spite of contradiction between the three countries.
The consumer spending of US has been in a moderate level and the market of China is drying up. The debt crisis of Europe is the biggest problem has been at ease at present and decreased fears. The analyst feel that different governments have taken p austerity plans to increase the growth of their countries. The renewed confidence of emerging markets have created the domestic markets and shows the crisis will not stay long.
The biggest worry for China is involves policy mistake will require slowdown and control the inflation. The customers of US are known for their resilience and have gained a renewed confidence from past few months. The signs of rebound can be seen from the Chinese authorities and Europe. These are surveyed report of many economic blogger opinions covered to form a world economy.
The floods have taken lives of 701 people in China for the present year.People can still expect some more heavy rains in nine provinces.State Control Board and Drought relief head quarters said in the starting of the year some 347 people were missing due to the flood.The flood which happened recently killed 187 people and left 173 missing.
As many as 15 provinces were hit by the torrential rain and a tropical storm forecast is been identified. President has ordered ensure the safety of citizens and properties.The economic loss due to the flood in China comes up to 142 billion yuan and for the present month the loss is 38 billion yuan.The floods have damaged 7 million hectares of farm land and 645,000 houses for this year.
The torrential rain and pests may cause 10% of loss to the world’s largest grain producer. The uncontrollable rain has caused much damage to the early rice crops.The most affected province which had much rain was the jiangu province and Anhui. The flood has obtained a good amount of electricity of 6.78 billion kilowatt. Within a week other provinces like Sichuan, Henan, Hubei, Yunnan, Guangxi and Guangdong are expected to receive heavy rains.
The US unemployment continues to be very high at near 10%, while the housing sector is not reviving at all despite the special efforts and schemes by the government over the last two years.
Add to this the problem of very high trade deficit the country is running. Today the US debt is far higher than what the country can afford, and it is only a question of few more months before the government is forced to tighten the spending.
That would mean major cut in employment and other benefits to millions of government sector employees. And the European and Japanese governments are already into major deficit cutting mode which in turn could cut down the exports out of US.
Nothing seems to be going right, and expect US to get into recession in the next few quarters, if not early.
On Thursday the strong banks of Britain showed high share interest over the sector’s view. There was a steady price over the crude oil and mines decreasing the risk.Biggest gainers were the banks like Royal Bank of Scotland,Lloyd s banking group which showed a 5.1% and 4.8% respectively. The US peer state street said the gains during the last quarter will make definite earnings which would top the wall street forecasts.
The head of UK equities,Richard Hunter said the second quarter of the session will not be as bad as expected. Many investors had the same feeling about the gains over the banks. The sector strategy over the Credit Suisse and European banks rose up to 10%.The positive raise is seen in the European stress test and is gaining the steady general situation.The triple whammy has gained according to the global growth forecast.
International Monetary fund(IMF) renewed its global growth during 2010 in Asia and US private demand.IMF has even faced the debt crisis due to the European debt crisis.The crude oil had a showed a firm price on monday.The oil spill company has taken ideas of settling the cost within the end of July 27 which shows the limited cost over spending.The top spot of Blue chip leader board was hold by Aggreko.The investors are mainly interested in Bank of England decision rate.
The European Union has still not recovered from the global economic crisis, and the PIGS countries namely Portugal, Ireland , Greece and Spain are pulling down the entire zone due to their huge public debt levels. These countries have seen the tax revenues go down sharply in the last two years, but have kept their public spending including lavish public sector salaries and pensions and medical covers.
Now the European Union has been forced to get into the act last week, by announcing a massive 900 billion dollars worth of financial rescue package, to help European currency stay around current levels. The Euro has crashed to multi year lows last week due to the fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the region.
Now banks are reluctant to lend to these four countries which in turn has triggered the crisis.
Greece is now left with the only option of defaulting on debt repayment obligations, and then ask for a substantial write off of loans from the leading lenders. That could well help the country to immediately stave off the debt crisis, but there could be long term implications for the country.
The country could well be sent out of European Union and it would also not be able to raise any debt from any of the global banks and financial institutions. That could well make it into another Argentina in the making.
So Greece is trying the option of implementing austerity measures like spending cuts and tax increases. That could be difficult for Greece to implement beyond next two quarters , say experts.
Greece says it has agreed a deal with the European Union and IMF to rescue the nation’s embattled economy.
Prime Minister George Papandreou said Greece would have to make “great sacrifices” to avoid bankruptcy.
The value of the rescue deal will be announced later. Details of the austerity cuts agreed in return for loans have been revealed.
There are fears that the Greek debt crisis could spread to other countries using the European single currency.
On Saturday, police again clashed with demonstrators in Athens who were protesting against government measures.
A nation’s prosperity depends on the citizens living in it. The prosperous South Korea is seeing numerous deaths due to suicide especially young professionals. The reason behind these suicides is due to depression countless agonizes, overwork and pressure. The people in South Korea are known to work more, sleep less and spend more money. The suicide victims are below 35 years usually already depressed without facing anything.
The reason some victims say is they are gaining but becoming more lonely and depressed. The following month saw the suicide deaths of 1,700 people and resulting in death of 35 Koreans death daily. The nation with a population of 50 million has seen the rate of suicide increased in the past decades. The industrialized world shows Korea is the highest in the suicide rate difficult to hear. The early 1980’s saw the rate of suicide wealthy countries peaked but now the toll continues in Korea.
Among 100,000 twenty six people are known to commit suicide in 2008 a report shows. Japan suicide has now become a embedded deeply in the culture. Korea was the lowest suicide rates among the industrialized countries list but becoming rich has made it worried. The modernity has now increased the levels of stress resulting in suicide. A taboo still exists in Korea of being stressed say psychiatrist. There is always a dark side of rapid development, one has to try to spend time over oneself and come out of suicide thoughts.
